Bitcoin Odds of Hitting $100k Crashed to 36%

Bitcoin’s odds of reaching $100,000 before the end of December plummet from 88% to 36% on the Kalshi prediction market. BTC has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks prompting a reassessment of its near-term prospects.

Prominent crypto analysts like Capo, known for accurately predicting the 2022 market crash, has voiced concerns about Bitcoin’s current trajectory. Capo cites factors such as overextended bullish sentiment and waning momentum as harbingers of a potential pullback.

Bitcoin (BTC) Retreat from its Surge Tempo

This caution follows Bitcoin’s recent retreat from a high of $99,645 on November 22nd to $96,256, a decline that erased over $60 billion in market capitalization. This pullback, occurring after a 44% rally since November 5th (spurred by the U.S. presidential election results), highlights the market’s susceptibility to rapid shifts.

The recent market downturn was accompanied by significant liquidations, exceeding $500 million in the past 24 hours, impacting over 197,551 traders, according to Coinglass data. Bitcoin accounted for a substantial portion of these liquidations ($70.4 million), followed by Ethereum ($43.4 million), highlighting the broad-based nature of the correction.

Moreover, this liquidation event ranks among the largest in six months, indicating significant pressure within the market. The resurgence of traders from the 2020-2021 bull cycle, revisiting assets perceived as undervalued, further contributed to the increased market activity and subsequent volatility.

Furthermore, escalating tensions in the Middle East have encouraged investors to seek refuge in traditional safe-haven assets, diverting funds away from cryptocurrencies. Simultaneously, the strength of the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate adjustments have created a mixed macroeconomic environment.

Technical Analysis Highlights BTC Trajectory

Technical analysis further supports the possibility of a correction. Historical patterns reveal that Bitcoin’s parabolic price increases are often followed by corrections of approximately 80% (±5%), raising concerns about further downside potential.

Analysts, including Peter Brandt, have projected potential declines to levels as low as $91,583 or even $85,610. Moreover, technical indicators such as the TD Sequential sell signal on the 12-hour chart, coupled with RSI bearish divergence and an approaching MACD bearish cross, reinforce this bearish outlook, with $94,200 identified as a critical support level.

Despite these short-term challenges, Bitcoin maintains a strong market dominance at 56.2% of the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization ($3.46 trillion). Trading volume remains relatively high at $48.9 billion, suggesting sustained investor engagement. While the near-term outlook remains uncertain, historical data hints at the potential for recovery in December.