Sources Claim That Polymarket Do Not Reflect America Voters Sentiments
Polymarket, says it prohibits American users from wagering on U.S. elections by implementing stringent verification processes
The recent surge in bets favoring former President Donald Trump on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket has sparked considerable intrigue. The platform’s odds, which place Trump at a 60% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, starkly contrast with traditional polls, indicating a tighter race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
However, the discrepancy has led to widespread speculation, with many questioning the source of the substantial bets pushing Trump ahead.
However, a source familiar with the matter revealed that the four accounts responsible for placing over $30 million in bets on Trump are owned by non-American individuals. This information, confirmed by the Wall Street Journal, further complicates the situation.
Notably, Polymarket prohibits American users from wagering on U.S. elections. The company has also implemented stringent verification processes to ensure its large traders are not bypassing geographic restrictions through VPNs.
Polymarket Says It Maintains Political Neutrality Despite Poll
Despite the platform’s efforts to maintain transparency, the sheer volume of these bets, equivalent to approximately 1% of the presidential race’s trading volume, has prompted Polymarket to launch an investigation in collaboration with external experts.
Moreover, this investigation aims to shed light on the origins of these large-scale trades and any potential irregularities. The situation highlights a growing trend of international involvement in American politics, particularly through online platforms.
However, while Americans remain restricted from directly wagering on U.S. elections, due to regulations imposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), other platforms like Kalshi, which have successfully challenged the CFTC’s ban, are opening doors to a more globally diverse pool of participants.
Kalshi, for instance, currently reflects a 57% chance of Trump winning, a figure in line with Polymarket’s odds. The platform attributes the Trump surge to a natural market response, reflecting his increasing popularity and the prediction markets’ ability to aggregate information faster than traditional polls.
Whether these surging odds accurately reflect the American electorate’s sentiment remains a crucial question. While international participation in U.S. political markets is a novel phenomenon, it raises concerns about the potential for foreign influence, especially when large sums of money are at stake.
